Anabelle Colaco
07 Sep 2026, 04:47 GMT+10
WASHINGTON, D.C.: A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report has increased expectations of an interest-rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, as President Donald Trump renewed demands for lower rates and threatened to halt trade with countries with which the United States runs a deficit.
Employers added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly three times as many as economists had expected. Following the report, short-term interest-rate futures indicated about a 62 percent chance of a rate increase this month, up from around 55 percent beforehand.
The Fed meets September 15 and 16, and its decision is likely to depend heavily on inflation reports due next week.
Inflation has remained above the Fed's two percent target for 5-1/2 years. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said last week that he needs confidence inflation is moving back toward the target "clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do."
Trump renewed his pressure on the central bank shortly after the jobs figures were released.
"The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart - BE PATRIOTS for a change," Trump said in a Truth Social post.
"High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won't allow that to happen!" Trump said.
"A STRONG COUNTRY MEANS A LOWER INTEREST RATE - IT'S A BETTER CREDIT…Very simple!" he added.
Trump also directed his criticism at U.S. trading partners. He has imposed sharply higher tariffs that have contributed to price pressures, which have more recently been exacerbated by an escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict and a boom in AI-related investment demand. Both have pushed up longer-term U.S. Treasury yields, raising government borrowing costs.
"We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World ... LOWER THE RATE OR I'LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT," Trump said.
The August jobs report also showed more workers entering the labor force. Labor force participation rose to 61.6 percent, driven by a 300,000 increase in people moving directly from the sidelines into jobs and a decline in the number of workers or job seekers leaving the labor market.
The unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent, while Black unemployment fell to six percent after reaching as high as eight percent last fall. Hourly earnings growth remained at 3.1 percent, a pace consistent with the Fed's two percent inflation target.
Attention now turns to the consumer price data to be released on September 11, which could strengthen the case for a rate increase or support keeping rates unchanged if inflation comes in weak.
"Trump's renewed pressure on the Fed to cut does nonetheless complicate things even further for Warsh ahead of the final inflation data into the September meeting," Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha said. "Warsh was notably hawkish at Jackson Hole, at a minimum shifting the onus of proof to demand the data to provide additional reason not to raise rates."
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said September 3 that he would support keeping rates at 3.50 percent-3.75 percent if next week's inflation data, including the producer price index, show price pressures continuing to moderate.
"While Fed officials have communicated that they are squarely focused on the inflation readings, today's strong employment report also provides additional support for rate hikes this year," Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote. "We now see two, 25 basis-point rate hikes by year-end, lifting the fed funds rate to four to 4.25 percent."
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