Anabelle Colaco
16 Sep 2026, 15:47 GMT+10
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia could lose the ability to export as much as four percent of global oil supply within days unless a major pipeline to the Red Sea resumes operations, as stocks available at export terminals begin to run down, according to Saudi oil buyers and traders.
Any further reduction in Saudi flows would deepen a global supply crunch that has already driven fuel prices to record highs, increased inflation worldwide and pushed U.S. bond yields to their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis.
Saudi Arabia shut its major east-west oil pipeline on September 11 after drone attacks. Riyadh has not provided full details about the extent of the damage or how long the route is expected to remain offline.
Estimates of the repair time vary. One source said the damage could take as long as five to six weeks to repair, while another said repairs could be completed sooner and that the pipeline could partially resume pumping while work continues.
Saudi Arabia's government media office and energy ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
For the past six months, the pipeline across the Arabian Peninsula has helped shield Saudi Arabia from much of the impact of the wartime shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which has crippled exports from neighboring countries.
The world's largest oil exporter has been using the pipeline to reroute about 4 million barrels per day, roughly four percent of global supply, to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
With the pipeline now out of service, Yanbu has enough oil stocks to maintain exports for only five to seven days, according to three industry sources familiar with Saudi exports.
Saudi Arabia also has stocks that can supply customers for several days through Egypt's Ain Sukhna port on the Red Sea and Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean, a fourth source said.
Industry estimates put Yanbu's storage capacity at about 35 million barrels. Ain Sukhna can store 18 million barrels and Sidi Kerir about 20 million barrels.
Those storage facilities are not full, however, and the available stocks will eventually be exhausted unless operations on the east-west pipeline resume, the four sources said.
Saudi oil supply had already dropped to a more than three-decade low in August because of reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, the International Energy Agency said on September 11.
The IEA, which coordinates Western energy policies, expects global oil supply to decline by 5.7 million barrels per day this year, or about six percent.
Pressure on Saudi oil shipments has also increased elsewhere. In addition to the attack on the pipeline, Houthi fighters in Yemen, who have threatened Saudi oil shipments, seized an island at the mouth of the Red Sea on September 11.
Before the war, the Middle East supplied about 22 million barrels per day of oil.
Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have since slowed to between six million and nine million barrels per day, according to industry sources.
Saudi Arabia told OPEC last week that its oil production had fallen to 6.2 million barrels per day in August, down sharply from 10.9 million barrels per day in February before the war began.
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