RFE
14 Jan 2026, 21:18 GMT+10
As Irans clerical rulers face one of the biggest threats to their grip on power in years and the United States threatens potential military action in support of Iranian protesters, China has few options -- and growing hesitancy -- to help its partner in Tehran.
Beijings inaction reflects the pragmatic nature of their alignment, which is based more on convenience rather than goodwill or trust, experts say.
Those limits have been on display as the Iranian authorities wage an unprecedented and bloody crackdown on mass antiestablishment protests, leading US President Donald Trump to impose new tariffs and threaten "very strong action" against the Middle Eastern country.
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Iran is an important partner to China, but I dont think Beijing is particularly wedded to the Islamic Republic, wrote Jonathan Fulton, an expert on China in the Middle East at Zayed University in Abu Dhabiin his newslettertracking China in the region.
Beijings response to events in Iran has been confined to decrying Trumps announcement that Washington would impose an additional 25 percent tariff on countries that do business with Iran.
We have always believed that there are no winners in a tariff war, and China will resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on January 13.
A day earlier, Maosaidthat China hoped the Iranian government and people will overcome the current difficulties and maintain national stability when asked about Tehran's crackdown that has killed at least 2,400 protesters, according to rights groups.
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Both countries have found common ground in a shared desire to push back the United States, while China has become an economic lifeline for heavily-sanctioned Iran.
China is Irans top trading partner, buying an estimated 90 percent of its oil exports, while roughly 12 percent of Chinas oil imports came from Iran, although estimates are imprecise given that Iranian oil flows through a shadow fleet of disguised vessels and paid for through financial networks that avoid the traditional banking system.
There is utility [for China] in a large anti-Western government in the Gulf, but whether thats run by the Ayatollah or the military or a council of elders, I think Beijing is largely agnostic. As long as the energy flows, theyre fine with it, Fulton said.
While oil has formed the bedrock of the China-Iran relationship in recent years, it has also exposed the cracks in their partnership, Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Councils Global Energy Center, told RFE/RL.
China has been preparing for shocks to the oil market for some time and has been stockpiling crude oil since 2024, he said. The bottom line is that Chinese refiners have import cover and could replace Iranian oil. But Iran losing access to imported goods from China could add to the economic crisis and cause an even greater inflationary spiral.
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