MUNICH -- The first day of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) ended late on February 13 with the worlds foreign-policy elite left in a state of suspended animation.

After a day defined by pointed rhetoric and wrecking-ball warnings from European leaders, the focus has shifted entirely to the man set to deliver Washingtons answer: Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

As the Davos of Defense concludes its opening sessions, the spotlight has fixed squarely on Rubio, who arrived tasked with articulating how President Donald Trumps America First doctrine will interface with a jittery global order.

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In the ornate corridors of the Bayerischer Hof and during a series of frantic "pull-aside" meetings on the sidelines, a singular question dominated the day's discourse: Will Rubios keynote address -- scheduled for the morning of February 14 -- serve as a stabilizer for the transatlantic project, or will it further expose the widening fissures between Washington and its oldest allies?

A Moment Of Reckoning

Established in 1963 as a forum to coordinate Western strategy against the Soviet Union, the Munich gathering now faces a different strategic test: whether Washington and its European allies can adjust the terms of their partnership without allowing it to fracture.

Several European officials told RFE/RL late on February 13 that this years meeting represents a pivotal moment for the transatlantic alliance.

One scenario discussed in the hallways would see NATO recalibrated around a more capable European pillar -- a Europe better able to provide for its own defense while maintaining a steadier, more-balanced partnership with the United States.

The alternative, which weighed heavily on the first day's atmosphere, is a continuation of transatlantic disputes over shared values, national priorities, and burden-sharing -- tensions that, left unresolved, could harden into lasting estrangement.