Indirect effects of the Iranian conflict, particularly through energy markets, are likely to place considerable pressure on South African farmers. The price of diesel, a key cost for agricultural operations, is expected to rise sharply from April.

by Ntandoyenkosi Ncube

JOHANNESBURG, March 27 (Xinhua) -- South Africa's agricultural sector is likely to face pressure from rising fuel costs and disruptions to global shipping routes amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, a South African political analyst has said.

In a recent interview with Xinhua, Ralph Mathekga, a senior expert at the Liechtenstein-based Geopolitical Intelligence Services, said that while the immediate impact on exports remains limited, some perishable products could face challenges.

"I can imagine perishable citrus food and beef products might experience some difficulties reaching markets such as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states in general," Mathekga said, adding that most other agricultural commodities are not currently at significant risk.

However, he warned that indirect effects of the conflict, particularly through energy markets, are likely to place considerable pressure on farmers. The price of diesel, a key cost for agricultural operations, is expected to rise sharply from April, he said.

"This will impact production, as tractors and most farming machinery run on diesel," he said, adding that fertilizer costs are also likely to increase, further raising costs.

Although domestic food prices have yet to reflect these pressures, consumers may begin to feel the impact in the coming weeks. Higher fuel costs are expected to push up transportation and distribution expenses, which are closely linked to diesel prices, he warned.

"We have not seen prices rising yet, but I think in a month or so we will begin to see this," he said.

Mathekga also highlighted the importance of key global shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, noting that any disruption would affect both oil supplies and agricultural trade flows.

Facing the potential risks, Mathekga said South Africa has limited capacity to shield itself from the effects, as the crisis is rooted in broader global supply chain dynamics.

"These disruptions affect global logistics, and South Africa will not be able to do much to avoid the impact," he said.

Looking ahead, Mathekga emphasized the need for long-term planning and greater international cooperation. While the situation underscores the importance of diversifying export markets and strengthening food security strategies, he cautioned that such measures will take time to implement.

"Any strategy will have to be long-term. The responsibility to plan requires global collaboration, which South Africa can be part of," he said.