Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, concerns are mounting over a potential shortage of aviation fuel, with experts warning that disruptions in kerosene supplies could lead to significant reductions in air traffic across Europe in the coming months. The situation remains uncertain, including when shortages might begin to affect operations.

Asian markets are considered most exposed, but Europe also relies heavily on fuel linked to Middle Eastern oil and refineries. According to Agence France-Presse, around half of Europe's kerosene supply is sourced from the Gulf, leaving the region highly dependent on stable maritime routes.

Within the EU, preparedness varies significantly. Bulgaria, Austria and Poland are assessed as being in a stronger position due to relatively higher reserves. By contrast, countries such as the Netherlands and the United Kingdom face greater vulnerability, while France is described as being in an intermediate position, ?neither good nor critical?.

Energy analysts warn that if disruptions continue, flight reductions could begin as early as May or June. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, said the impact could escalate quickly, noting that ?the situation could become systemic in the next three to four weeks,? adding that cancellations have already started in some cases.

Despite these warnings, the European Commission has sought to calm concerns. Spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen stated that ?there is currently no evidence of a fuel shortage in the European Union,? while acknowledging that supply issues, particularly for jet fuel, could emerge in the near future.

Industry bodies and energy experts, however, suggest that shortages could develop within weeks if shipping through the strait is not restored. The European Airports Association previously warned that supply disruptions could begin around early May, a timeline echoed by International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol.

According to the IEA's monthly outlook, continued market pressure and limited replacement capacity for lost Middle Eastern supply could push European kerosene stocks below the critical threshold of roughly 23 days by June.

Some analysts expect a more moderate impact, with partial cancellations rather than a full-scale collapse of air traffic. ING economist Rico Luman said disruptions would likely be uneven, affecting smaller airports and domestic routes more severely, while major hubs would be prioritized. ?There will not be a complete shutdown, but rather partial cancellations for some airlines and some airports,? he said.

Airlines are already facing increasing difficulties in planning schedules. The industry group Airlines for Europe has called for a real-time fuel availability tracking system across EU airports, though suppliers remain reluctant to share sensitive data.

Energy companies are also warning of pressure on supply chains. TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyann said prolonged disruption could lead to 'serious problems? if the blockade continues beyond several months, with the risk of failing to meet all customer demand.

Airlines have proposed allowing broader use of Jet A fuel in the EU, similar to the US standard, but regulatory barriers make rapid changes unlikely. Meanwhile, the European Commission is exploring measures such as improved refinery utilization and mapping of production capacity to mitigate potential shortages.

Fuel prices are already rising, increasing pressure on airlines and raising the possibility of higher ticket costs, cancellations, and even grounded aircraft if conditions worsen. The situation is compounded by reduced refining capacity in Europe in recent years due to the transition toward cleaner energy, leaving existing facilities operating near maximum levels.

Regional differences remain pronounced. Spain maintains strong refining capacity and even exports kerosene, while the United Kingdom relies on imports for more than 60% of its needs. Major hubs such as London Heathrow report no immediate disruption but are monitoring the situation closely.

Airlines are also urging the EU to strengthen strategic fuel management, including coordinated stock monitoring and potentially joint purchasing mechanisms. While member states are required to maintain 90 days of oil reserves, there is currently no unified minimum requirement for jet fuel storage across the bloc.