LOS ANGELES, California: Tesla's long-promised robotaxi expansion is progressing more slowly than expected, with CEO Elon Musk adopting a notably cautious tone on timelines and safety as the company scales its autonomous driving ambitions.

Speaking during Tesla's first-quarter earnings call, Musk said he hopes to have robotaxis and fully driverless vehicles operating in "a dozen or so states" by the end of the year. He emphasized that the company is taking a "cautious approach" to avoid injuries or fatalities, marking a shift from his earlier, more aggressive projections.

Just months ago, Musk had said robotaxis would reach "half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year" and grow at a "hyper-exponential rate." Analysts say the revised outlook reflects the complexity of deploying self-driving technology at scale.

"The robotaxi rollout has been far slower than expected," analysts at William Blair wrote, describing Musk's latest remarks as unusually restrained.

Tesla is attempting to build a large-scale autonomous ride-hailing business, a strategy that underpins much of its market valuation. Analysts note that competitors like Waymo have spent years refining similar systems across multiple cities.

Musk has acknowledged past missed targets on self-driving technology. In January 2025, he said he was known as "the boy who cried wolf," before adding: "There's a damn wolf this time, and you can drive it."

Even so, timelines continue to shift. While Musk previously suggested robotaxis would significantly contribute to Tesla's revenue by mid-2026, he now says they will likely "not be super material this year," but "will be material probably in a significant way next year."

At the center of Tesla's plans is the Cybercab, a two-seater vehicle designed to operate without a steering wheel or pedals. Musk confirmed that production has begun but said initial output "will be very slow," with "exponential" growth expected later.

"The limiting factor for expansion is really rigorous validation, making sure things are completely safe," Musk said.

Analysts say the cautious stance reflects the high stakes involved. "They don't want to risk an incident because they weren't extremely safe and weren't 100 percent confident," said Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein.

Others pointed to the gap between expectations and current deployment levels. Barclays analysts noted Tesla still has only a "nominal number of driverless vehicles," while Morgan Stanley said slower progress could limit near-term upside for the stock.

Tesla shares fell more than 3 percent in afternoon trading following the update.

Despite the delays, some investors remain patient. Garrett Nelson of CFRA Research said the company could still win confidence if it proves the model works in select markets.

"People who have been following the story for years know that things happen on Elon time," he said.

For now, Tesla's robotaxi ambitions remain a key test of whether the company can translate bold vision into large-scale, safe, and profitable operations.