Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], July 14 (ANI): India's macroeconomic landscape is facing severe cost pressures as Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to an 18-month high of 4.38 per cent alongside a sharp acceleration in the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) to the 9 per cent mark, driven by escalating food costs and structural energy pain.

In an exclusive interview with ANI, leading economists highlighted that despite these compounding supply-side shocks, widening trade deficits, and geopolitical volatility in West Asia, a resilient domestic growth engine is currently acting as a cushion even as corporate profit margins prepare to take a direct hit.

The recent price acceleration across the board presents a complex hurdle for baseline economic tracking.

Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge Ratings, noted that the swift pace of the metrics caught market observers off guard.

'Inflation indeed came in higher than market expectations at around 4.4 per cent. This was driven by both food inflation and a spike in fuel price inflation,' Sinha said.

Focusing heavily on the downstream implications of the wholesale numbers, Sinha added, 'With WPI rising to 9 per cent, corporates will face higher input costs going forward, which will inevitably put pressure on their profit margins.'

Dipti Deshpande, Senior Director and Principal Economist at CRISIL Ltd, categorised the domestic price pattern as a classic cost-push disruption. Deshpande emphasised the underlying structural challenges, stating, 'Growth is going down, inflation is going up.'

Expanding on the market transmission, Radhika Rao, Senior Economist & Executive Director at DBS Bank, explained that consumer price indices are continuing to digest these input bumps: 'June inflation accelerated to 4.4 per cent yoy, an 18-month high... reflecting the continued normalisation of food prices and pass-through of pump price increases implemented in mid-May.'

Evaluating the primary commodity drivers, the analysts pointed to highly volatile crude oil prices and the ongoing West Asian geopolitical friction. Sinha described the situation as a major global wildcard, explaining that unpredictable crude trading makes long-term forecasting difficult.

Deshpande detailed that the progressive build-up of the imported Indian basket--moving from USD 64 a barrel to a peak of USD 101 in the June quarter--compounded by a weakening rupee, will likely produce a retail inflation 'hump' averaging 5.1 per cent across the fiscal year.

Rao further observed that these elevated energy costs have capped near-term local exchange rate gains: 'The rebound in global oil prices has clouded the near-term prospects for rupee appreciation,' even amidst resilient foreign portfolio equity inflows.

These external factors are simultaneously shifting internal domestic economic dynamics. On the trade front, the goods trade deficit has widened sharply to USD 30 billion, driven by a 31 per cent surge in imports, including a 40 per cent jump in crude oil purchases.

Deshpande noted that this 'import bulge is on expected lines' and is being cushioned by strong export growth of around 15.5 per cent. Sinha projected that India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) will remain highly manageable, hovering comfortably between 0.8 per cent and 1.2 per cent of GDP for the fiscal year, anchored by robust services exports and healthy remittance inflows.

Additionally, while a weak and erratic monsoon poses an upside risk for food prices, Sinha observed that the economy is structurally evolving: 'Over the years, the direct impact of a weak monsoon on overall economic growth has structurally reduced compared to a decade or two ago.' (ANI)