New Delhi [India], August 10 (ANI): Global rice production is projected to decline by 9 million metric tonnes to 536.4 million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing year as a potentially strong El Nino, rising input costs and geopolitical tensions threaten crops, according to S&P Global projections cited by the Indian Rice Exporters' Federation (IREF).

The outlook comes as weather-related uncertainty affects major rice-producing, exporting and importing countries, including India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, Myanmar and the Philippines.

These countries face varying levels of pressure from possible disruptions during planting and growing periods, changes in acreage, concerns over water availability and increasing production costs, IREF said in a release ahead of the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) 2026.

A prolonged and intensifying El Nino, along with higher fertiliser, fuel and transportation costs linked to continuing tensions in the Middle East, is creating a new risk environment for global rice markets, the release said.

According to the release, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center had, as of July 2026, forecast a 97 per cent probability of El Nino persisting into early 2027. It also indicated an 81 per cent chance of the event becoming very strong during October-December 2026.

With El Nino expected to persist until at least April 2027, major rice-growing regions could face adverse weather during important planting and crop-development periods. Higher input costs could also affect farmers' planting decisions, particularly across Asia.

Despite the projected fall in production, global rice exports are expected to remain relatively stable, supported by strong carry-in stocks from the 2025-26 marketing year.

However, global import demand is forecast to rise by nearly 4 million metric tonnes to 59.7 million tonnes as countries seek to secure supplies against possible harvest disruptions.

Consequently, the global rice stock-to-use ratio is projected to fall to 36 per cent. While the ratio remains comfortable by historical standards, the release said that the situation would require increasingly close monitoring.

Rice prices across major exporting countries have also begun reflecting concerns about weather risks and a tighter global supply-demand balance.

S&P Global Energy is expected to present a detailed assessment of global rice production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices at BIRC 2026. The assessment will also examine which countries face the greatest supply risks, the markets that could emerge as major importers and how traditional rice-trade flows may change over the coming year. (ANI)