MILWAUKEE (CN) - An establishment Democrat upset the democratic socialist favorite in the chaotic primary for Wisconsin governor, setting up a heated race against a MAGA Republican in November.

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, 40, eked out a surprise win in Tuesday's primary for Wisconsin governor over state Representative Francesca Hong.

The upset is a harsh loss for progressives, who faced the strongest headwinds from establishment Democrats despite Hong's substantial and consistent lead in the polls.

Crowley will compete for the governor's mansion against U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany, who got a head start on the campaign trail while Democrats tried to find their footing.

Still, state Democrats have a slight edge. After securing a few big wins in recent elections including flipping the ideological majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court after over a decade of conservative rule, the party has momentum on its side.

But Crowley, who would be Wisconsin's first Black governor, still faces an uphill battle.

From the moment polls closed at 8 p.m. CDT, and results began pouring in, Crowley and Hong were within hundreds of votes of each other. They took turns at the top for four nail-biting hours before Hong conceded.

With 99% of the vote counted, the Associated Press reports Crowley on top by just 3,723 votes.

Hong and Crowley each had just under 40% of Democratic voters on their respective sides, while the remaining are spread over the wide field of Democrats who either dropped out or had no chance of usurping the front runners.

Because Hong conceded, there will not be a recount in the exceptionally close race.

"Tonight's all about @DavidCCrowley. He's earned this win and the accolades," Governor Tony Evers said in a post on X late Tuesday night. "I am so proud of David - he's the future of our party, and I can't wait for him to be our next governor. For now, we polka. Tomorrow, we're back at work to win."

The Numbers

Democrats turned out more voters than Republicans in Tuesday's primary, signaling where the electorate's energy could be focused come November.

Crowley raked in just over 315,000 votes to Hong's 311,000 with almost every vote in the state counted. Tiffany earned 467,679 votes, securing 95% of Republican voters to medical service technician Andy Manske's roughly 22,000.

Democrats nearly doubled Republican turnout, bringing out an unofficial total of 791,883 voters to Republican's 490,661, according to the Associated Press.

Official numbers will not be certified by the Wisconsin Elections commission until Aug. 25, but preliminary numbers show a slight uptick in turnout.

Wisconsin saw approximately 27% turnout of its voting age population, which is about half of what the battleground state can expect to see in an off-season general election. The 2022 fall primary brought in 26% of the voting age population, according to data from the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

Democrats saw seven options for governor on their ballots, splintering the blue vote and adding to the chaotic election season.

State Senator Kelda Roys and former Wisconsin Department of Administration secretary Joel Brennan were still in the race on primary day and together took in less than 100,000 votes.

Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez and former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes each won 4% of the vote despite dropping out in July. Missy Hughes diverted fewer votes than the gap between Crowley and Hong.

Carrol University Professor of Political Science Dr. Lilly Goren says Democratic turnout is a positive sign of a possible "blue trifecta."

"The general atmosphere across the country is anticipation of a blue wave," Goren said. "This is the dynamic of a wave election. One side gets their side energized even in a non-presidential year, and a good showing in the primary means you've primed those voters for the general."

Crowley's surprise win flew in the face of polling, but Marquette University political science Professor Julia Azari says that might not mean anything for November.

With candidates stepping in and out, sparse primary polling in the state was likely conducted at inopportune times. The final Marquette Law School poll referenced by most media outlets was partially conducted while Crowley was out of the race.

With a standard face-off ahead, the chaos should die down and polling should become more accurate, according to Azari.

The Nominees

Wisconsin Democrats ultimately rejected Hong's progressive vision for Wisconsin in favor of Crowley's more tempered, pro-business approach.

"They almost look, like, generic," Azari said of Crowley and Tiffany. "Like if you asked AI to draw you a governors race with a Democrat and a Republican, this is what it would spit out."

The moderate Democrat was born and raised in Milwaukee and frequently recalls a financially unstable childhood marked by his parents' battles with addiction and mental health.

He said on the campaign trail his family was evicted three times before he graduated high school, giving him unique perspective into every voter's hardships. He went on to become the youngest Milwaukee County executive, and the first Black man to serve in the role.  

"From day one, this campaign has been about what comes next for Wisconsin," Crowley said in a statement after winning the nomination. "The choice in November has always been clear. We can move Wisconsin forward with leadership focused on solving problems, or we can bring the division and extremism of Tom Tiffany and Donald Trump to Wisconsin."

Crowley dropped out of the race in July, only to jump back in 10 days later after the Rodriguez campaign blundered its finances.

The retiring governor endorsed and even stumped for Crowley in the final week leading up to primary day in an attempt to close the gap between him and Hong, who Evers himself told reporters could not beat Tiffany in November.

"Crowley is an odd choice for the 'electable' candidate, but the Democratic party will rally around his personal story and his embodiment of the American dream," said Azari.

She anticipates Tiffany will trade his red-scare tactics used against Hong for ads with racial undertones and criticism of the City of Milwaukee in the next three months.  

Tiffany, 68, earned endorsements from the state party as well as President Donald Trump.

"I want to thank Wisconsinites across our state for putting their trust in me. This fight is bigger than any one party. It's bigger than any one candidate. This fight is about Wisconsin and protecting the state we know and love," Tiffany said in a release on Tuesday evening.

The hard-right Republican has represented Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District since 2020 and is a member of the very conservative House Freedom Caucus.

The president needs support in Wisconsin if a Republican is going to perform well in the 2028 presidential election, according to Goren.

A Tiffany win in November would mean a complete turnaround in the state's priorities.

For years, Evers has acted as a liberal check on the Republican-controlled Legislature. He has blocked bills related to hot-button social issues like abortion, transgender students in sports and gender-affirming care.

He has also vetoed large tax cuts, a ban on immigrant healthcare and a penalty for counties whose sheriff's fail to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Goren says Evers likely jumped behind Crowley to rally undecided voters behind a candidate already serving in an executive position. Managing the state's biggest county gives Crowley a big leg up.

Due to delayed results Tuesday evening, the state parties declined to comment.

Source: Courthouse News Service