Mohan Sinha
06 Sep 2026, 08:53 GMT+10
GENEVA, Switzerland: The El Niño weather pattern could strengthen further in the coming months and may continue to affect weather conditions into 2027, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The United Nations weather agency said there was almost a 100 percent chance that El Niño would remain in place until February 2027. The forecast is being driven by unusually warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. The WMO said this was the first time it had expressed such a high level of confidence about the continuation of the weather event.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the current trend could make this El Niño stronger than any event recorded since modern monitoring began.
"If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts," she said at a press conference in Geneva.
El Niño occurs when surface waters in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. It is a natural climate pattern that normally appears every two to seven years and can last for several months or up to about a year.
The warming is linked to weaker trade winds over the Pacific. It can change normal weather patterns in many parts of the world, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to some regions while causing drought and heat in others.
A particularly strong El Niño can increase the risk of extreme weather, including severe droughts, heavy rain and powerful tropical storms. Its effects can also be felt far beyond the Pacific region.
The WMO said ocean temperatures during this year's event were already more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal. It classified the current El Niño as one of only four events since records began in 1950 to reach the highest category, "very strong."
The effects are already being felt in tropical regions. The weather pattern has affected crops and other agricultural products and has contributed to serious food problems in parts of Central America's Dry Corridor.
The WMO expects the event to reach its strongest point towards the end of this year. However, its influence is expected to continue into 2027.
Scientists also warned that the unusually strong El Niño could push global temperatures higher next year. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of the WMO's climate prediction services, said global temperatures normally rise temporarily after an El Niño event. He suggested that 2027 could potentially become the hottest year ever recorded.
The United Nations has also warned that a stronger El Niño could put additional pressure on countries already dealing with climate-related disasters. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the planet was entering increasingly unfamiliar conditions as ocean temperatures continued to rise.
El Niño itself is a natural phenomenon and is not directly caused by human-driven climate change. However, scientists say rising global temperatures and warmer oceans can make its impacts more severe.
In response to the growing risks, the WMO said it was increasing its preparedness and early-warning efforts. The aim is to give governments and communities more time to prepare for extreme weather.
Possible measures include helping farmers shift to drought-resistant crops and improving preparations in sectors such as agriculture, healthcare, energy, and water supply.
The WMO said stronger cooperation with UN agencies and humanitarian organizations is needed so countries can receive timely climate information and act before extreme weather causes greater damage.
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