SMPL

New Delhi [India], October 7: Residential prices across 11 emerging Indian real estate markets rose 63% between 2021 and 2026, compared with 42% across the country's top eight cities, according to the CII-Knight Frank India report India's Next Real Estate Markets. Leading real estate developer Pujit Aggarwal said the divergence reflects a broader shift in where housing demand and economic activity are beginning to take shape, as infrastructure is delivered, employment grows, and public amenities are used.

The shift predates the recent price run-up. Between 2016 and 2026, residential prices across Bhopal, Bhubaneswar, Chandigarh Tricity, Goa, Indore, Jaipur, Kochi, Lucknow, Nagpur, Visakhapatnam and Coimbatore grew at an average annual rate of 8%, twice the 4% CAGR recorded across the top eight cities.

"The Tier-I and Tier-II labels are becoming too broad to explain where the real opportunity lies," said Aggarwal. "Two cities placed in the same category can have very different employment bases, infrastructure pipelines, and capacities to retain young households. Investors need to look at what is making people stay, earn, and spend in a city."

Infrastructure thus has become an important part of that equation. The same report notes that infrastructure's share of total government capital expenditure increased from 39% in FY2015 to 55% in FY2026. At the same time, cities outside the top eight metros are projected to record 28.2% population growth, compared with 8.7% for the largest eight cities.

The broadening of these markets is also visible in commercial real estate. Key Tier-II markets recorded 11.2 million sq ft of warehousing leasing in 2025, with Lucknow, Jaipur, Nagpur, Indore, Coimbatore, and Bhubaneswar together accounting for 5.3 million sq ft. Tier-II cities also accounted for 36 million sq ft of India's 134 million sq ft of organized shopping-center stock in 2025.

Aggarwal believes this will make city selection more important than category selection for investors and developers.

"Price appreciation can bring a market into focus, but it cannot be the only test," he said. "The stronger cities will be the ones where employment, infrastructure, local enterprise, and household demand begin moving together along with the usable public infrastructure as witnessed in Mumbai due to the metros, coastal road, second airport, and the trans harbour link which are used and accessed by every resident. That is where and when a more sustainable real estate cycle can take shape."  

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