American arms production will mostly be for replenishing Pentagon inventories, according to Matthew Whitaker

European countries should expand their own arms production because American factories will largely be occupied with supplying the US military, Washington's envoy to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, has said.

US defense spending could reach $1-1.5 trillion in 2026, leaving limited manufacturing capacity for foreign buyers, Whitaker said at the Warsaw Security Forum on Monday. "The US needs friends with manufacturing capacity," Whitaker said, urging Europe to increase output to meet its own growing weapons demand.

The warning comes as Washington struggles to replenish missile stocks depleted by its war against Iran. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that US forces had fired over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles by late May, representing nearly a third of its stockpiles. It also used over 1,500 high-end Patriot interceptors, or about 65% of its reserves, as of late July. Reuters also reported in August that the US army had used "virtually all" of its high-precision long-range missiles.

Bloomberg reported last month that NATO members faced delivery delays of up to several years as Washington prioritized rebuilding its own inventories. Germany's requests for accelerated Tomahawk deliveries were unlikely to be fulfilled within five years, according to the report.

Europe has continued to suffer weapon shortages after donating billions worth of arms to Ukraine. A European Defence Agency assessment presented in September identified significant shortages in air and missile defense, ammunition and other essential capabilities. Efforts to manufacture Patriot interceptors in Germany have also yet to bear fruit.

Whitaker said that Europe ranks fourth among Washington's security priorities, behind homeland security, the Western Hemisphere and the Pacific. Nevertheless, he reassured European officials that "we still love you," and that the US "isn't stepping back" but "just asking you to step forward." 

He also urged NATO to modernize bases, supply chains for fuel, and deployment arrangements to move forces and equipment from Western to Eastern Europe, "where we would expect any future conflict." He announced no new relocation decisions.

Since returning to office, President Donald Trump has moved to reduce US military commitments in Europe. He has repeatedly criticized NATO members for insufficient spending and demanded that they assume greater responsibility for their own defense.

European governments have meanwhile been ramping up military spending, citing allegations that Russia could attack a NATO country by the end of the decade. Moscow has repeatedly rejected claims that it plans to attack Europe, but has warned that NATO would face a full military response if it attacked Russia first.