by Xirui Li

NEW YORK, Nov. 2 (Xinhua) -- Rural America was a key factor in U.S. President Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2024. But as farmers grapple with rising costs and economic uncertainty, those pressures are putting the Republican Party to the test ahead of the midterm elections.

As of Friday, the Senate races in Ohio, Iowa and Kansas were rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. Agriculture, manufacturing and livestock production are central to the economies of all three states.

Republicans carried all three states by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election, while several Republican-held House districts with large farming constituencies have also emerged as battlegrounds.

Farmers, long a core Republican constituency, are now grappling with high fuel and production costs, tariffs, trade disruptions and broader concerns over affordability.

In Shelby County in western Ohio, farmer Christopher Gibbs has noticed a subtle change in the surrounding communities. The political signs that once seemed a permanent fixture in neighboring yards are beginning to disappear.

"Becoming dissatisfied with an administration that you fully supported but supported very vocally, now becoming very silent, is a step-down," he said.

Gibbs' own political views have also shifted over time. He voted for Trump in 2016, left the Republican Party in 2019, spent three years as an independent, and registered as a Democrat in 2022.

Having farmed for more than four decades, Gibbs now runs a 560-acre family operation with about 90 head of cattle. He said farming has become increasingly difficult as costs continue to rise.

Machinery and replacement parts cost more, while fertilizer and diesel prices have risen amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Tariffs and uncertainty over export markets have added to the pressure, Gibbs said. With margins already thin, his farm has bought no new machinery or additional land this year, postponing virtually all nonessential capital investment.

"You can take one year of negative cash flow, because any business is dynamic. There are good years, and there are bad years," Gibbs said. "You can take two years and grumble about it, and you can metaphorically dig pennies and nickels out of the couch and get by."

"But we're in the third year of that, and now you've got my attention. And that's unsustainable," he said.

A 2026 Ohio State University survey of farmers, farm managers and agricultural operators found that the cost of many farm operations had risen from two years earlier, driven by higher machinery, labor and fuel expenses. A recent Marist poll also found 44 percent of Ohio voters said their family finances had worsened over the previous year.

In Iowa, 42 percent of likely voters said their personal finances had worsened over the past year. The state's agricultural economy has also been under sustained pressure, with net farm income falling 53 percent between 2022 and 2024, according to Iowa State University.

Paul Beck, professor emeritus and academy professor of political science at Ohio State University, said signs of erosion in Republican support are visible in Ohio, including in parts of southeastern Ohio, a region that has shifted strongly toward Republicans over the past decade.

"The public opinion polls have been skewing in the direction favorable to the Democrats over time," he said.

Beck added that a combination of factors, including "affordability, inflation, the war in Iran," have weighed on the current administration's approval rating, along with more recent political developments that have drawn criticism from some Republican voters.

Rural voters may remain Republican-leaning, but economic pressures could narrow the party's traditional margins in some areas. This can be especially acute for farmers during the harvest season, when fuel use rises.

On Oct. 19, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced 8 billion U.S. dollars in fuel relief for farmers, following 12 billion dollars in agricultural assistance announced last year to offset losses associated with tariffs and market disruptions.

Similar pressures are weighing on farmers in California, though its agricultural economy and political landscape are markedly different from the Midwest.

Colin Carter, professor emeritus of agricultural and resource economics at the University of California, Davis, said California farmers and producers are particularly vulnerable to trade disruptions and tariffs.

Agricultural trade, he said, is built on long-term "trust and goodwill." Once those relationships are disrupted, regaining lost market share can take years. Recent research led by Carter also found that, in aggregate, the top 13 California agricultural commodities exported to its main overseas market fell from an average total annual value of around 1.55 billion dollars to 554 million dollars in 2025, a 64 percent decline in a single year.

"There's a lot of suffering going on in the farm community," said Carter.

Such economic pressures are also playing out in competitive House races in agricultural regions, including California's Central Valley.

The partisan divide in the United States remains closely tied to geography, with Democrats drawing more support from urban areas and Republicans from suburban and rural areas, said Justin Buchler, a professor of political science at Cleveland-based Case Western Reserve University.

Ohio traditionally leans Republican, but the combination of economic uncertainty and a midterm election under a Republican president could work in Democrats' favor, Buchler said.

"Voters always hold the president and his party responsible, and when the economy is strong, the president receives credit, rightly or wrongly," he said.