High Hurdles To Progress At New US-Ukraine-Russia Talks

RFE
09 Nov 2026, 19:55 GMT+10

After fading into the background when the war with Iran began, the US diplomatic push to end Russias invasion of Ukraine is intensifying again, with the first US-Ukraine-Russia talks since February scheduled for November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi.

On the eve of the talks, US President Donald Trump said on the CBS program 60 Minutes that he believes were very close to a deal and that the war is going to end soon.

Nevertheless, expectations of a breakthrough at the negotiations this week are low. Here are five reasons why.

Means To An End

One of the barriers to substantial progress could be summed up in a single word: Russia.

While the statement that Russia could end the war in an instant is something of a truism, its also true: President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022, and he could halt the fighting, at least, by agreeing to something Kyiv and the West have called for: a cease-fire that would leave the front lines in place.

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But he has shown no sign of doing so, and analysts caution that Moscow has used past talks to play for time and keep hopes for peace alive while refusing to make concessions.

For the West, negotiations are a means of ending the war; for Putin, they are potentially a means of winning it, Sam Greene, a professor at the Russia Institute at King's College London andauthor of a book on Putin, wrote in a blog post on November 8.

Western policymakers need to understand the distinction between Putin wanting negotiations and Putin wanting to negotiate, he wrote.

The Donbas

In launching the full-scale invasion, Putin aimed to subjugate Ukraine and weaken the West, and experts say his desire to seize territory is secondary to those goals. But going into the Abu Dhabi talks, one of the highest hurdles to progress is a chunk of territory in the Donetsk region -- part ofthe Donbas-- that Moscows forces have failed to capture in years of extremely bloody fighting.

The Kremlin says Russian control over all of the Donbas is a prerequisite for any peace deal, not the subject of negotiation, and that it will continue its efforts to take the remaining portion by force if diplomacy doesnt deliver it into Moscows hands.

Trump seemed to suggest that such a result is in the cards when he told CBS that the war would end with a little bit different shape Ukraine, though he did not specify what part of the country Kyiv might have to cede or whether he meant Moscows control would be formalized -- something Kyiv says is unacceptable. Russia now holds about 20 percent of Ukraine, including the Crimean Peninsula, which it occupied in 2014.

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As forthe Donbas,Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly said Russia must not be handed territory that Kyivs forces have been able to defend, and theres no sign of a change in that stance.

Adding to Kyivs motivation is the fact that the portion of the Donetsk region that Ukraine still holds is a fortress belt of defensive infrastructure, and relinquishing it would leave Ukraine more vulnerable to future attacks.

'Big, Beautiful Agreement'

Trump has been seeking to broker a peace deal since he started his current term in January 2025, after repeatedly saying he could end the war in a day or two. At times, the US has sought a full cease-fire as an initial step -- an idea that Russia has consistently rejected, saying the fighting can stop when a comprehensive peace deal is reached.

On November 5, however, Trump suggested something much broader: a big, beautiful agreement that is going to involve more than Ukraine.

His son-in-law and special adviser Jared Kushner, who is to represent the US in Abu Dhabi along with Steve Witkoff, elaborated on the idea in an X post, writing of the need for a broader European security architecture that can help establish conditions for lasting peace.

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Kushner offered assurances that any new arrangements must fully respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independent decision-making of every nation. Each country will retain authority over its own security and alliances, and no country would have a veto over anothers sovereign choices.

But the idea rangalarm bellsin Kyiv and beyond, in part because some of the language echoed longstanding Kremlin calls for a strong say for Russia on European security architecture decades after the Soviet retreat from Eastern Europe and the collapse of the USSR.

It raised concerns that Europe which Russia insists will not be directly involved in the Abu Dhabi talks could be left out of discussions on its own future.

"We already have a European security architecture in place," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters, adding, Any agreement in order to be implemented will require the European Union to be part of it."

In any case, Ukraine and the EU will be wary of any discussions that threaten to exclude Europe or leapfrog over what they see as more urgent goals, such as ending the fighting and ensuring Ukraines security. And a push for a continent-spanning agreement could make smaller steps toward peace harder to achieve.

Winter War

The talks come one week after US voters handed Trumps party a huge defeat in the midterm elections, with Democrats wresting control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives from Republicans.

The new Congress will not be seated until January 3, though, leaving a window of several weeks in which the White House may want to seal a deal.

Reaching an agreement would mean that somethings got to give, though. Trump may have hinted at what that could be, in his view, by suggesting that Ukraine will have to cede territory.

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But the power of the US to press Kyiv to make major concessions is limited, and the imminent change in Washington -- as well assuccesses on the battlefieldand in its campaign of strikes on Russian energy and military infrastructure -- may be incentives for Ukraine to endure what could be its harshest winter yet.

Meanwhile, major new pressure on Russia seems unlikely for now, and analysts said Moscow is likely to continue itsrelentless attackson Ukrainian power plants and other vital infrastructure -- as well as strikes that kill civilians -- over the winter in the hope of pushing Kyiv toward compromises in 2027.

I certainly dont think were going to have peace before spring, British-based analyst and author Mark Galeotti said on his podcast late last month. If nothing else, Putin will think, Lets have another winter hammering the Ukrainians.

Ukrainian rescuers work in Komyshuvakha following Russia's deadly attack last week.

Greene, in his blog, wrote that Russia will be counting on inflicting a calamitous winter on Ukrainians and looking to elections next spring in France and Germany will undermine European support for Kyiv.

By May or June, Moscow will likely feel that its position is at a high-water mark and will look to lock in its gains, he wrote, adding that as for this weeks talks, My baseline assumptionis that Abu Dhabi will yield nothing of substance.

Horrible History

For suggestions that Russia is not ready to make concessions, one need look no further than statements from Putin and other officials to that effect.

Another possible piece of evidence, however, is the fact that Moscows delegation at the talks is to be led by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, a historian and former culture minister who has both shared and shaped Putins views about Ukraine, which the Russian president has repeatedly said has no right to full sovereignty.

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Medinsky, who has echoed Putins revisionism on Ukrainian history and other matters, is widely reported to have been instrumental in writinga July 2021 articlethat, at least in retrospect, laid bare Putins designs on Ukraine seven months before the full-scale invasion.

He led Moscows delegation at some of the previous rounds of talks with Ukraine in the past two years, including the most recent trilateral meeting, in Geneva in February, and was seen in Kyiv and the West as a conduit for therepetition of Russian demands, showing little flexibility at talks that ended without progress toward peace.

"You want serious negotiations, you send serious people," Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned in protest at the Ukraine invasion and lives abroad, told RFE/RL in 2025. "Medinsky? He's amateur team, second, third tier, not to be taken seriously."

RFE/RL senior international correspondent Mike Eckel contributed to this report

High Hurdles To Progress At New US-Ukraine-Russia Talks