KHARTOUM, Nov. 13 (Xinhua) -- Relations between Sudan and Ethiopia have entered a new phase of tension, as mutual accusations of interference in internal affairs and support for armed groups have spilled over into diplomatic retaliation and appeals to international and regional bodies. The growing rift has raised concerns over its potential implications for stability in the Horn of Africa.

The Sudanese government has accused Ethiopia of allowing its territory to be used as a launching ground for drones targeting Sudan and providing logistical support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which have been fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces since April 2023.

Khartoum has filed complaints with the UN Security Council and the African Union Peace and Security Council, accusing Addis Ababa of facilitating attacks launched from Ethiopian territory. Ethiopia subsequently closed the Sudanese consulate in Asosa and gave six Sudanese diplomats 48 hours to leave the country. Sudan responded by closing the Ethiopian consulate in Gedaref and expelling its diplomats.

Addis Ababa, meanwhile, accused Sudan of providing safe havens and logistical support to fighters from the Tigray People's Liberation Front, which has been engaged in a prolonged confrontation with the Ethiopian government.

MUTUAL ACCUSATIONS DEEPEN SECURITY CONCERNS

Khalid Dirar, a professor of political science at al-Rasid Center for Strategic Studies in Khartoum, said the diplomatic escalation reflected growing tensions and could lead to further restrictions on official relations.

Beyond the diplomatic dispute, the mutual accusations reflect deeper security concerns and competing regional interests, said the observers.

Ethiopian political analyst Biniam Niguse noted that Addis Ababa viewed the Sudanese army's repeated accusations and Khartoum's involvement in a regional axis as attempts to encircle Ethiopia and exert pressure on it.

Whatever the motives behind them, the recent exchange of accusations reflects growing mistrust between the two countries, with both increasingly concerned about threats to their respective security and political interests.

Sudanese political analyst Abdul-Raziq Ziyada warned that the conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia could become increasingly intertwined, with repercussions extending to neighboring countries.

Continued tensions could undermine border security, disrupt population movements and trade, and create opportunities for armed groups to conduct cross-border activities, Niguse cautioned.

LONGSTANDING DISPUTES COMPLICATE BILATERAL TIES

The current crisis is also rooted in longstanding disagreements over the Fashaga border area, Nile waters and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Ziyada identified the dam and border disputes, particularly over Fashaga, as major sources of tension. The area is strategically important for agriculture and is home to communities with overlapping economic and social interests on both sides of the border.

Ethiopian political expert Getachew Abra said Sudan's position on the Renaissance Dam was a source of concern for Addis Ababa. He noted that the dispute had expanded beyond water management to encompass broader political and security considerations.

Abra also linked the current tensions to the repercussions of the conflict in the Tigray region, particularly after Sudan strengthened its presence in border areas. He noted that RSF accusations that Tigrayan fighters were participating alongside the Sudanese army had added another dimension to the dispute.

He added that Ethiopia's internal conflicts and security challenges had further complicated its relations with neighboring countries. The overlapping conflicts in the two countries, particularly in border areas where armed groups operate, risk turning the shared frontier into a source of insecurity.

MILITARY CONFRONTATION RISKS WIDER CONFLICT

Analysts have cautioned that the diplomatic dispute could potentially develop into a direct military confrontation, with implications extending beyond the two countries.

In an analysis entitled "Sudan and Ethiopia: A New Front of Confrontation in a Dangerous Situation," the International Center for Strategic Studies warned that any Sudanese military response targeting sites inside Ethiopia, including airports or drone launch facilities, could widen the conflict and turn it into a regional confrontation.

Ziyada similarly cautioned that attacks on military sites or facilities inside either country could trigger reciprocal military measures that would be difficult to contain, particularly amid the ongoing conflict in Sudan and overlapping regional interests and alliances.

Such escalation could further destabilize the Horn of Africa, where the conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia intersect with Nile water disputes and competition among regional powers.

Addressing border security and non-interference in internal affairs, while maintaining political and diplomatic communication, were essential to containing the crisis and safeguarding stability across the Horn of Africa, Ziyada said.