SINGAPORE: As the global aviation industry gathers in Singapore, airline executives and regulators are confronting a tougher path to growth, shaped by persistent supply chain disruptions and rising geopolitical friction, even as they reaffirm long-term climate commitments.

Speaking at the Changi Aviation Summit, industry leaders said bottlenecks affecting aircraft manufacturing and maintenance remain a drag on capacity and are unlikely to ease quickly. The warnings came on the eve of the Singapore Airshow, Asia's largest aviation exhibition.

"This disruption continues to have a major impact," said Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association.

Airframers Airbus and Boeing have been grappling with supply chain constraints since the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, engine makers, including GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney, are balancing demand for new aircraft production with maintenance needs for existing fleets.

Beyond manufacturing issues, the industry is also adjusting to geopolitical shifts, including U.S. import tariffs that have reshaped global air freight patterns.

"I think the impact of geopolitical change was much more obvious on the air cargo side of the business than on the passenger side," Walsh said.

Air cargo volumes between Asia and North America fell 0.8 percent last year — the first decline in some time — while shipments between Europe and Asia rose 10.3 percent, he added.

Despite the challenges, Asia-Pacific remains the world's fastest-growing air travel market, driven largely by China and India. Passenger traffic in the region is projected to grow by 7.3 percent in 2026.

However, Toshiyuki Onuma, newly elected president of the governing council of the International Civil Aviation Organization, cautioned that growth on that scale will require sweeping changes.

"A system built for four billion passengers cannot support three times that number without transformation," Onuma said. "We must also accelerate progress to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050."

Supply Chain ‘Weaponisation'

The summit took place amid renewed tensions over aircraft certification, which threatens a long-standing framework of global aviation rules under the Chicago Convention.

Onuma declined to comment directly on Donald Trump's recent demands that Canada certify certain U.S.-designed Gulfstream business jets or face tariffs, saying ICAO would remain "technically neutral".

"If it is obvious that some member states are violating the Chicago Convention, then firstly ICAO's function is (to) ask such a country to rectify the situation," he said, without saying whether that would apply to Trump's intervention.

Addressing the roughly 350 aviation executives and regulators at the summit, Onuma stressed the need for international cooperation.

"Only together can we achieve a sector that is safer, more sustainable and more competitive," he said.

Trump's remarks have unsettled airlines and certification experts, who fear political pressure could undermine safety oversight.

"There can be no bargaining over certification," a senior regulatory official told Reuters.

Concerns over politicisation were echoed by Apostolos Tzitzikostas, who warned of growing risks tied to the "weaponisation" of global supply chains.

"Today, (there are) real issues in developing the growth of aviation in the years to come...issues of weaponisation of dependencies in supply chains," he told the conference.

His comments followed similar warnings from France's aerospace industry last month about the vulnerability of cross-border supply networks built over decades of globalisation, which are now under strain.

Aerospace executives say access to rare earths, essential components in jet engines, remains a key concern, even after a U.S.-China trade truce. China continues to dominate global metal supplies, leaving manufacturers exposed to future disruptions.