The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has projected continued economic growth for Bulgaria over the next few years, following an estimated expansion of 2.9 percent in 2025. According to the bank's regional development report, Bulgaria's GDP is expected to grow by 2.7 percent in 2026 and 2.6 percent in 2027. Compared to the EBRD's previous forecast in September 2025, last year's growth estimate has been revised downward by 0.3 percentage points, while the projection for 2026 shows a modest increase of 0.1 percentage point.

For the broader South-Eastern Europe region, the EBRD anticipates economic growth of 1.4 percent in 2025, unchanged from the September forecast, with a slight decline to 1.5 percent in 2026, 0.3 percentage points below the previous estimate. Growth is expected to pick up to 2.3 percent in 2027.

Looking across the bank's full investment region, which includes more than 35 countries spanning Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean, overall economic expansion is expected to be 3.4 percent in 2025, rising to 3.6 percent in 2026 and 3.7 percent in 2027. These projections mark a 0.2 percentage point increase for 2025 and 2026 compared with the September 2025 estimates.

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and global trade disputes, the EBRD notes that their impact on trade and growth has been more contained than initially expected. Inflation across the bank's regions eased to 5.5 percent by December 2025, supported by slower wage growth and positive real interest rates. The institution emphasized that overall, economic growth in the countries where it operates remains resilient in the face of these challenges.