MANAMA, Bahrain A pre-dawn explosion that tore through homes in Bahrain earlier this month, injuring dozens of civilians including children, was likely caused by an American-operated Patriot interceptor missile rather than a direct Iranian drone strike, according to a Reuters investigation published Saturday.

The blast, which occurred March 9 in the Mahazza neighborhood on Sitra island, initially prompted both Bahraini and U.S. officials to blame Iran. U.S. Central Command posted on X that day that "an Iranian drone struck a residential neighborhood in Bahrain," injuring 32 people .

But Bahrain's government acknowledged for the first time on Saturday that a Patriot air defense system was involved in the incident. A government spokesperson said the missile had successfully intercepted an Iranian drone mid-air, adding that "had the Iranian drone impacted the residential area, it would have resulted in significant loss of life" .

The spokesperson maintained that "the damage and injuries sustained were not a result of a direct impact to the ground of either the Patriot interceptor or the Iranian drone" .

Analysis points to U.S. battery

An analysis by researchers at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, examined by Reuters, concluded with "moderate-to-high confidence" that the missile was launched from a U.S.-operated Patriot battery located in Riffa, about 7 kilometers southwest of the blast site .

Researchers Sam Lair, Michael Duitsman and Professor Jeffrey Lewis based their findings on open-source visuals and commercial satellite imagery. Key to their analysis was a video shot from an apartment building showing a Patriot missile roaring across the night sky on a northeastern trajectory before angling downward, with a flash appearing 1.3 seconds later .

The researchers geolocated the video to a neighborhood in Riffa, Bahrain's second-largest city. Using satellite imagery, they traced the missile's trajectory back to a Patriot battery site that has existed there since at least 2009. They determined the site is likely U.S.-operated based on distinctive features including protective walls, unpaved roads and a lack of permanent buildings—characteristics that differ from known Bahrain-operated batteries .

Bahrain's Defense Force did not begin operating its own Patriot systems until 2024, according to a Lockheed Martin press release .

Competing narratives

The official accounts have shifted significantly since the attack. On March 9, U.S. Central Command explicitly denied reports from Russian and Iranian media that a Patriot missile had failed to intercept its target and struck a residential area, calling those reports a "LIE" .

CENTCOM insisted at the time that "an Iranian drone struck a residential neighborhood, injuring 32 civilians in Bahrain, including children who required medical treatment" .

Bahrain's Ministry of Interior also posted on X on March 9 confirming casualties from what it described as "Iranian aggression" . The Bahrain Defense Force said its air defense systems had intercepted 102 missiles and 171 drones since Iran began targeting the country on February 28 .

Neither Bahrain nor Washington has provided evidence that an Iranian drone was involved in the Mahazza incident, according to Reuters .

Technical analysis raises questions

The Middlebury researchers noted that the pattern of damage—concentrated along four streets of Mahazza—was consistent with a Patriot missile exploding in the air over a road intersection. Debris then traveled approximately 120 meters to damage another home .

While acknowledging it was possible the Patriot struck a low-flying drone, with both detonating in the air, the analysis suggested another scenario: "the explosion was the result of the detonation of the warhead and unexpended propellant of a Patriot interceptor" .

Audio specialist Robert Maher, who reviewed the video for Reuters, said his analysis supported the approximate location of the explosion over the damaged homes. He noted he heard no drones or other missiles in the audio, though their sounds would have been faint if they were more than four miles away .

Defense and industry officials say Patriot misfires are rare but not unprecedented. An errant Patriot missile struck a farm in Qatar in 2007 .

Wes Bryant, a former senior targeting advisor and policy analyst at the Pentagon, told Reuters the Middlebury researchers' conclusions were "pretty undeniable" .

Broader context of the conflict

The incident occurred 10 days into the war with Iran, which began following U.S.-Israeli military strikes against Iran on February 28. The conflict has seen widespread exchanges of fire across the Gulf region .

Bahrain plays a critical strategic role as host to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet and Naval Forces Central Command. The small Gulf kingdom sits near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas .

On the same night as the Mahazza explosion, the Sitra oil refinery came under Iranian attack, with the Bahraini national oil company Bapco later declaring force majeure .

The incident highlights what analysts describe as a defining feature of the conflict: the use of costly, advanced Patriot interceptors—each missile costing millions of dollars—against far cheaper drones. Whether or not it intercepted a drone, the powerful Patriot's blast contributed to widespread damage and civilian casualties .

Official responses

When asked for comment, the Pentagon referred Reuters to Central Command, which did not immediately reply to questions. A senior U.S. official told Reuters the United States was "crushing" Iran's ability to produce drones and missiles, adding that the U.S. military "never targets civilians" .

The official did not answer specific questions about the Patriot incident .

Bahrain's government declined to say whether the missile was fired by its own forces or by the United States. The government spokesperson said any suggestion of malfunction or misfiring of Patriots in Bahrain was "factually incorrect" .

Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment .

Reuters says it was unable to obtain or review any visual evidence of missile or drone fragments. Witnesses in Bahrain declined to speak with the news agency, citing fear of reprisals. Human Rights Watch has documented arrests in Bahrain during the war of people posting videos of attacks on social media