Analysts believe the current ceasefire is fragile and that competing interests and long-standing differences would make it difficult to reach a permanent peace deal in the upcoming negotiations.

BEIJING, April 10 (Xinhua) -- The United States and Iran are scheduled to begin negotiations on Saturday morning during the diplomatic window of a two-week conditional truce announced on Tuesday, more than one month after the start of U.S.-Israeli joint military strikes on Iran.

The ceasefire has been welcomed by the international community. It has also drawn global attention to potential obstacles to a lasting peace deal in the talks scheduled to be held in Islamabad, Pakistan.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ

The U.S.-Israel war against Iran that began on Feb. 28 has led to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway for transporting roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, driving up oil prices and disrupting the global economy.

On Wednesday, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told a press briefing that the U.S. willingness to hold talks with Iran is contingent on the reopening of the Strait "with no limitations or delays."

Iranian media reported Wednesday that oil tankers' movements through the strait stopped after Israel's fresh deadly attacks in Lebanon. Tehran said the attacks violated the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal that Israel has agreed to comply with.

Media reports said Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in a phone conversation Thursday that safe passage through the Strait, promised for two weeks under the ceasefire, will be provided if Washington adheres to its commitments.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Thursday that Iran will advance the management of the Strait into a new phase.

Ship-tracking data showed two non-Iranian oil tankers were allowed safe passage through the Strait after the truce was announced. The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that Iran has demanded oil tankers pay a transit toll of 1 U.S. dollar per barrel.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened Iran to stop the tolling. A day earlier, he told ABC News that he is considering a "joint venture" with Iran to charge fees for crossing the Strait, and wrote on social media that "big money" could be made by the United States "helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz."

LEBANON: INCLUDED OR NOT?

Israel's parallel conflict with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group active in southern Lebanon only intensified. On Wednesday, hours after the truce took effect, Israel launched, in this war, its largest and deadliest single-day attack in Lebanon, killing more than 300 people and injuring over 1,100.

Speaking in a televised address Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel "still has objectives to complete, and we will achieve them -- either through an agreement or by resuming the fighting." He wrote in an X post that Israel will continue to strike Hezbollah.

Israel and the United States said the two-week truce does not cover Lebanon, a position disputed by Iran and also Pakistan, which brokered the ceasefire deal.

In response to the Israeli attacks in Lebanon, Araghchi on Thursday warned Washington against allowing Israel to "kill diplomacy." He wrote on X Wednesday: "The Iran-U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose -- ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both," and that "The ball is in the U.S. court."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf have both stressed that stopping attacks in Lebanon is an integral part of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

Around the world, many leaders have denounced Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon, urging it to halt the bombings and include Lebanon in the truce.

Online U.S. media outlet Axios reported Thursday, citing a senior Israeli official, that Israel and Lebanon will start their first round of direct negotiations next week in Washington, D.C., with the United States, Israel and Lebanon represented at the ambassadorial level.

ENRICHED URANIUM

The longstanding Iran nuclear issue, a major reason behind Washington's war on Tehran, will remain at the top of the agenda. The United States and Israel, which consider Iran's proximity to the nuclear threshold as an unacceptable security threat, have long accused Iran of developing nuclear weapons -- an allegation rejected by Iran and not substantiated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring its nuclear program, which Tehran has insisted is for peaceful purposes only.

At Wednesday's White House press briefing, Leavitt said, "The president's red lines, namely, the end of uranium enrichment in Iran, have not changed."

According to her, Washington is working on a modified version of Iran's 10-point peace plan ahead of their closed-door talks, which Trump called a "workable basis."

However, on Thursday, Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, reiterated Iran's continued tough stance.

"The enemies' claims and demands to limit Iran's enrichment program are merely wishes that will go to the grave," he was quoted as saying by the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA). "No law or individual can stop us."

PROSPECTS FOR PEACE DEAL IN DOUBT

Trump, cited by NBC News reports, said Thursday that he was "very optimistic" a peace deal with Iran was within reach, and that Iran's leaders "talk much differently when you're at a meeting than they do to the press."

"They're agreeing to all the things that they have to agree to," Trump claimed. "If they don't make a deal, it's going to be very painful."

Trump said he had a phone call with Netanyahu on Wednesday and noted that Israel was "scaling back" operations in Lebanon, saying, "he's going to low-key it."

The United States, Iran and Israel have all claimed victory in the war. Analysts believe the current ceasefire is fragile and that competing interests and long-standing differences would make it difficult to reach a permanent peace deal in the upcoming negotiations.

Mohammed Zakaria Aboudahab, a professor of public law and political science at Morocco's Mohammed V University, said: "The fundamental drivers of conflict -- Iran's nuclear status, the reconfiguration of Gulf security architecture, and the persistent risk of escalation within the Israel-Hezbollah-Iran triangle -- remain unresolved."

Akram Atallah, a Palestinian political analyst, said, "The current agreement should be understood primarily as an attempt to contain escalation rather than resolve the underlying conflict."

Salah Ali Salah, a project officer at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, believed that "The chances of renewed tensions outweigh the prospects for a real diplomatic breakthrough in the coming weeks."

Mohamed Benaya, an expert on Iranian and Gulf affairs at Al-Azhar University in Egypt, also pointed to "a problem of trust between the two sides," noting that "Bridging these gaps will be difficult without phased, reciprocal concessions."

"Over the next two weeks, we may see limited confidence-building steps," Oytun Orhan, a senior researcher at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Studies, told Xinhua.