GENEVA, Switzerland: A strong El Niño weather pattern could push nearly 49 million more people into serious food insecurity across some of the world's most vulnerable regions by the end of next year, according to the World Food Program (WFP).

In its latest report, the UN agency said there is an 81 percent likelihood that a very strong El Niño will develop. Sea surface temperatures are already at their highest levels since at least 1982, and the current conditions could make this the most intense event recorded since 1950.

El Niño, which is caused by periodic warming of ocean waters in the Pacific, disrupts global weather systems. It is typically linked to drought in Southern Africa, delayed monsoon rains in parts of Asia, and unpredictable rainfall in other regions.

"These are events that ⁠in the past have triggered large-scale hunger," Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP's Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, said.

The WFP based its findings on an assessment of 45 countries considered highly vulnerable to El Niño's effects. It estimated that the number of people facing acute food insecurity could increase by nearly 49 million, bringing the total to about 274 million. This would represent a 22 percent increase over the current number of people already experiencing crisis-level hunger or worse.

The report indicated that Central America and Southern Africa are likely to be among the most severely affected areas. Food insecurity in Central America could rise by about 83 percent, while Southern Africa may see an increase of nearly 75 percent.

Southern Africa, along with South America and the Caribbean, could each experience an additional 12 million people falling into acute food insecurity.

Bauer explained that global food markets are entering the El Niño period from a relatively stable position, helped by strong harvests in 2025. However, he noted that ongoing conflict in the Middle East and potential crop losses from extreme weather could drive food prices higher.

He also pointed out that while past El Niño events have not usually led to major global spikes in food prices, they have often caused shortages in specific regions. These shortages, along with rising local prices, could make it harder for vulnerable households to access food.

The report highlighted that funding cuts from the United States and European donors in 2025 have weakened efforts to track the growing crisis. Bauer described the situation as a worsening shortage of food-security data needed to measure El Niño's impact.

WFP conducted around 1.1 million household surveys in 2024, but that number fell to about 800,000 in 2025. Data collection has declined even further this year due to continued funding constraints.

Bauer warned that reduced monitoring makes it more difficult to quickly detect emerging food crises, especially during a high-risk period like El Niño.

According to current forecasts, parts of East Africa, the Sahel, Central America, and the Caribbean are expected to face below-average rainfall. At the same time, the risk of flooding could increase in Somalia and nearby areas.

The report also projected major impacts across South and Southeast Asia, where drought conditions, uneven monsoon rains, and localized flooding could disrupt farming and food production.

While the WFP stressed that forecasts remain uncertain and impacts will vary by region, it emphasized that governments and aid organizations must prepare in advance.

Richard Choularton, director of WFP's Climate and Resilience Service, stated that the agency has expanded early-action programs in 18 countries. These efforts have already reached more than 1.3 million people this year, providing cash support and other assistance to help communities cope with extreme weather.