Extreme heat from Super-El Niño threatens hundreds of thousands

Mohan Sinha
26 Sep 2026, 08:48 GMT+10

Extreme heat linked to this year’s “super-El Niño” could cause up to 451,000 additional deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027.
The Climate Impact Lab described the current El Niño as a “postcard from the future”, saying the extreme temperatures being seen now could become normal within a few decades.
The researchers said emergency measures should focus on regions most at risk from extreme heat and related deaths.

SINGAPORE: Extreme heat linked to this year's "super-El Niño" could cause up to 451,000 additional deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027, according to researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab.

The report said the number of extremely hot days could rise by 44 percent compared with normal years.

Nigeria is expected to record the highest number of additional heat-related deaths, at about 31,400. Indonesia could see 19,300 deaths, while Sudan could record 17,600.

Across Africa's Sahel region, including Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, extreme heat could cause an additional 66,800 deaths during the six-month period.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are also expected to face a combined 19,400 additional deaths.

The death toll could rise further if El Niño continues into 2027. Researchers said parts of the northern hemisphere, particularly India and Pakistan, could face greater risks during their summer months.

The Climate Impact Lab described the current El Niño as a "postcard from the future", saying the extreme temperatures being seen now could become normal within a few decades.

The researchers said emergency measures should focus on regions most at risk from extreme heat and related deaths.

Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the lab, said the findings could help authorities identify where urgent action is needed. He said the report could help decision-makers take steps to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months.