Anabelle Colaco
08 Nov 2026, 04:29 GMT+10
HOUSTON, Texas: Global oil prices plunged nearly 9 percent on November 4 as investors weighed the possibility of an earlier end to the US-Israeli war with Iran following the Republican Party's defeat in the US midterm elections.
Brent crude futures fell $9.27, or 8.9 percent, to $94.29 a barrel at 11:58 a.m. ET, touching their lowest level since September 4. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped $7.44, or 7.8 percent, to $88.54 a barrel.
The sharp decline came as markets awaited Washington's next steps in the conflict after Democrats won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
President Donald Trump acknowledged that the Iran war had contributed to his party's sweeping electoral defeat. He also told the Financial Times on November 3 that the United States had no immediate plans to strike Iran.
Brent had already settled at its lowest level in nearly four weeks in the previous session as traders assessed diplomatic efforts to end the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran.
"Larger crude oil exports out of the Middle East, along with President Trump stating he has no immediate plans to strike Iran, is keeping the pressure on crude oil prices for now. The Democratic control of Congress could also tighten US military spending in the Middle East and further heighten the possibility of a peace deal sooner than later," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at US financial services firm BOK Financial.
Despite growing speculation about a possible diplomatic resolution, significant uncertainty remains over the direction of the conflict.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement that US hostility toward Iran would continue regardless of which political party held power in Washington.
Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthis said they had targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, although Saudi authorities had not confirmed the claim.
Qatar stepped up mediation efforts following the US elections in an attempt to prevent further escalation. However, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on November 3 that Tehran and Washington remained far from reaching an agreement to end the war.
"The elections are giving bears a reason to cast doubt on a continuation in Iran ... I'm more concerned that we can see an escalation in Iran sooner than a resolution," said Carl Larry, who leads the trading and North America risk team at Enverus.
Oil markets are also monitoring the recovery of exports from the Gulf, where shipping disruptions have affected energy supplies since the conflict began.
Exports of crude oil, condensate and refined petroleum products from the Gulf, excluding liquefied petroleum gas, averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, according to ship-tracking data from Vortexa.
That was below September's 18.9 million barrels per day but still represented approximately three-quarters of pre-war export levels.
The United Arab Emirates is considering building a third oil-export pipeline that would allow crude shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
In the United States, government data provided some support for oil prices after showing an unexpected decline in crude inventories.
The Energy Information Administration reported that crude stocks fell by 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels in the week ended October 30, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an increase of 877,000 barrels.
Gasoline and distillate inventories also declined during the week.
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