NEW YORK CITY, New York: A little-known trader is drawing attention after a speculative wager tied to the fate of Venezuela's president turned into a six-figure payoff following a dramatic geopolitical turn.

An anonymous account on Polymarket made roughly US$410,000 after betting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be removed from office, according to platform data. The trader accumulated positions in contracts linked to Maduro's ouster at odds that suggested a low probability outcome before the weekend operation that led to his capture by U.S. forces.

Those wagers were valued at about $34,000 before the news broke. Their value surged after reports emerged of a U.S. military operation involving Maduro, according to Polymarket data.

Financial markets reacted swiftly. Major stock indexes climbed earlier on January 5, oil prices rose, and energy shares logged substantial gains after news of Maduro's capture over the weekend. Venezuelan government bonds, long battered by default, also rallied as investors anticipated a potentially large and complex restructuring. Bonds issued by the government and state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, known as PDVSA, jumped by as much as 10 cents on the dollar, or nearly 30 percent, as buyers moved quickly on the developments.

The surprise trade has sharpened scrutiny of prediction markets and the risk of insider activity. U.S. lawmakers have been pressing for stricter rules, including a bipartisan push to potentially ban lawmakers from trading stocks. After details of the Maduro-related trades surfaced, Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres said he plans to introduce legislation this week that would bar elected officials, lawmakers, and federal employees from placing bets on prediction market platforms where they could potentially access material non-public information.

According to Polymarket data, the anonymous account was created last month. The trader initially purchased $96 worth of contracts on December 27 that would pay out if the United States invaded Venezuela by January 31, and then placed several similar bets in the days that followed.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow users to trade yes-or-no contracts tied to real-world events across politics, economics, sports, and entertainment. When contracts priced at just a few cents settle at $1, traders with access to non-public information can generate outsized profits in a very short time frame.

In September, Polymarket secured approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to relaunch operations in the United States after acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. The CFTC did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether it was examining trades linked to Maduro's capture.

Polymarket has faced scrutiny in the past over potential insider trading concerns. While U.S.-based users are not currently allowed to access the platform directly, many traders are believed to use virtual private networks to circumvent the restriction.

Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.