El Niño could be strongest in decades, Australia declares

Most powerful El Niño in 70 years could affect Americas, Asia

Mohan Sinha
18 Jun 2026, 10:07 GMT+10

An El Niño weather pattern has developed in the tropical Pacific and could grow stronger in the second half of 2026, possibly becoming one of the most powerful in the past 70 years.
Forecasters say this stronger event is likely to bring heavy rainfall to the Americas and hot, dry weather to Asia, where crop planting is already being disrupted.
It added that forecasts suggest a strong to very strong El Niño, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific.

SYDNEY, Australia: Australia's weather bureau says that an El Niño weather pattern has developed in the tropical Pacific and could grow stronger in the second half of 2026, possibly becoming one of the most powerful in the past 70 years.

Forecasters say this stronger event is likely to bring heavy rainfall to the Americas and hot, dry weather to Asia, where crop planting is already being disrupted, raising worries about food supplies in the world's most populous region.

The Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement that sea surface temperatures in the region have exceeded El Niño levels and that atmospheric conditions also match the pattern.

It added that forecasts suggest a strong to very strong El Niño, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific.

About half of the models indicate that this event could reach peak levels among the highest seen since 1950.

Scientists have said that climate change will make the effects of this year's El Niño even stronger.

El Niño, which is a regular warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is linked to lower rainfall in winter and spring, especially along Australia's east coast, and higher daytime temperatures in the south, the bureau said.

This weather pattern is particularly harmful to Australia because it affects farming, and the country is one of the world's biggest exporters of wheat, sugar, and beef.

The last El Niño in Australia, from 2023 to 2024, led to the driest three-month period on record.

A very strong event in 2015 and 2016 caused widespread drought and reduced grain and oilseed production.