If replacement supplies become difficult to secure, the pressure could move from higher costs to lower refinery output, an analyst has told RT

Indian fuel exports could come under pressure if Saudi Arabia's crude supply halt persists, an analyst has told RT, with refiners facing higher replacement costs and the risk of lower export volumes if supplies tighten further.

State-owned Saudi Aramco has reportedly told Indian refiners it will stop contracted crude supplies until further notice after attacks damaged the kingdom's East-West Pipeline, a key alternative route as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted. Aramco accounted for around 9% of India's crude imports since the Middle East conflict began.

Indian refiners supplied about 60% of Europe's diesel last month and about 15% of jet fuel in July, and any pressure on export volumes or prices can have cascading effects around the globe. For now, strong diesel margins are supporting Indian exports despite elevated crude prices, energy sector analyst and senior VP at Indian ratings agency ICRA, Prashant Vasisht, told RT.

Shortages in several markets are keeping demand for refined products strong, meaning exports may not be materially affected unless crude availability deteriorates sharply, he said.

Russia's role as India's largest crude supplier could become even more important if Saudi flows remain disrupted, depending on the sanctions environment, Vasisht told RT in a telephone interview. India faces up to 100% additional US tariffs for buying Russian energy, from a legislation passed by Congress on Wednesday. New Delhi has warned that any tariffs could affect the international energy market, and bilateral ties.

If replacement crude becomes difficult to secure, the pressure could move from higher costs to lower refinery output. Refiners forced to cut capacity utilization could also reduce fuel exports, while a serious crude shortage could prompt the Indian government to prioritize local demand, Vasisht said.

India's Reliance Industries shipped around 4 million to 5 million barrels of diesel in July as lower Russian exports and Middle East disruptions tightened supplies across the globe. European diesel inventories were then at their lowest since 2014.

In the near term, however, Indian refiners should be able to manage the disruption because much of their crude requirement is secured around 45 days in advance. "For the next 45 days, India should broadly be OK," Vasisht said.

The immediate pressure will come from higher feedstock and freight costs. Replacing Middle Eastern crude could add around $0.40 to $0.70 per barrel in freight, while bringing barrels from the US could add roughly $2.50 to $4, depending on tanker rates, the analyst pointed out.

(RT.com)