WASHINGTON, D.C.: A series of global shocks is set to push commodity prices 23% higher in 2026, with the Middle East war, Black Sea grain shipment disruptions and demand for safe-haven assets driving up energy, food and metals prices, the World Bank said October 28.

Oil, natural gas, food and metals prices have all risen sharply this year, the World Bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook. The situation could worsen if the conflict in the Middle East escalates and damage to Russian oil infrastructure continues.

Commodity prices are expected to ease 7% next year, but continued shocks, including forecasts for the worst El Niño weather effect since 1950, could keep food commodity prices elevated and raise the prospect of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.

The World Bank said the global economy was more vulnerable to future supply shocks, with global oil stocks depleted during the Middle East war. Global oil supply is expected to fall 5.2% in 2026, the biggest decline in four decades outside the 2020 global recession.

"Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once," said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's deputy chief economist. "Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth."

The twice-yearly report was released two days before foreign ministers from the world's 20 largest economies are due to meet in Atlanta, Georgia, with the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine set to be a focus.

Kose said the World Bank was focused on protecting the world's poorest people and supporting low-income countries already dealing with heavy debt burdens.

The bank has provided $8.7 billion in low-cost loans and other aid to 25 countries negatively affected by the Middle East war. Ten countries retooled existing programs to cover crisis-related expenses and 19 tapped new resources, with some using both.

Global energy prices surged 32% in 2026, reaching their highest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the report said.

With oil output down, Brent crude prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term and average $92 per barrel this year. Prices would be even higher if oil demand were not forecast to fall 2.5% this year, the third-largest decline behind the 2020 COVID shock and the 1980 oil crisis.

Food commodity prices are set to rise just over 10% in 2026 because of grain shipment disruptions caused by hostilities between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea, followed by another increase of more than 7% in 2027. That would amount to a cumulative increase of nearly 18%.

An adverse scenario combining a record El Nino, further Black Sea grain shipment disruptions, an escalation in the Middle East conflict and continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure could push food prices 12% above expectations.

The World Bank said that could trigger a food crisis similar to the one in the early 2010s, when more than 40 million additional people were pushed into extreme poverty.

Fertilizer prices are expected to rise 14% in 2026 because of a surge in urea prices before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.

Metals prices are projected to increase 25% and reach a new high in 2026, with aluminum, copper and tin all setting records due to supply disruptions and strong demand from investments in renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centers.

Precious metals prices are forecast to surge 40% in 2026 amid strong demand for safe-haven assets triggered by geopolitical and policy uncertainty, before moderating in 2027.