Anabelle Colaco
29 Oct 2026, 15:15 GMT+10
NEW YORK CITY, New York: Inflation pressures are expected to persist across much of the global economy into 2027, with economists raising their forecasts for a majority of countries as high energy prices increasingly threaten to feed into broader price pressures.
More than 500 economists surveyed by Reuters this month raised their 2027 inflation forecasts for 31 of the 50 economies covered, including 15 of 21 developed economies.
The increasingly broad concern comes as crude oil prices remain above US$100 a barrel. Oil reached a six-month high of more than $117 last week and has risen more than 60 percent since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began almost eight months ago.
"I am getting much more concerned about inflation again," said Janet Henry, HSBC's global chief economist.
"The longer the situation evolves and escalates in the Middle East and the higher the broad basket of price pressures builds, the greater the likelihood that we get not just higher but more persistent inflation."
Across the past three quarterly Reuters polls, median forecasts for 2027 inflation have risen by 0.7 percentage points for the United Kingdom and 0.5 percentage points for the euro zone. Forecasts have increased 0.5 percentage points for Brazil, 0.4 points for India and 0.2 points for the United States.
The findings suggest inflation concerns are spreading beyond economies traditionally prone to greater price pressures.
Most central banks have raised interest rates only a few times, or not at all, but further increases could follow if inflation spreads further. A global bond-market rout in recent months has already tightened financial conditions by pushing yields higher.
"Higher energy prices continue to ripple through the global economy, but economic activity remains resilient, supported by the AI-led investment cycle and firmer-than-expected activity across several regions," Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's global chief economist, said in a note.
"The inflation picture has become more complex as signs of energy pass-through into core measures are beginning to emerge."
Despite the inflation concerns, economists have become more optimistic about economic growth.
Reuters' latest polls raised global growth forecasts to 3.0 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2027, up from 2.9 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, in July. The 2027 estimate remains below the International Monetary Fund's 3.4 percent forecast.
Economists also raised 2027 growth forecasts for 23 of the 50 economies surveyed.
The latest outlook differs from April and July polls, which pointed to a combination of weak growth and high inflation. The new forecasts suggest price pressures could persist even as economic activity proves more resilient.
The United States, where AI capital expenditure has become a major driver of domestic growth, is forecast to expand 2.3 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2027.
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